The fall of the Mongol Empire was caused by a combination of factors that operated over a long period, from the mid-thirteenth century to the seventeenth century. The most important factors were the absence of a clear law of succession, the cultural assimilation of the khanates into their subject populations, the rise of new regional powers, and the gradual transformation of the steppe environment that had originally produced the Mongol conquests. No single cause was decisive, and the fall of the empire was the result of a complex chain of events rather than a single catastrophe.
The fall of the empire can be divided into three broad phases. The first phase, from the 1260s to the 1330s, saw the fragmentation of the unified empire into four semi-independent khanates, each with its own political and cultural trajectory. The second phase, from the 1330s to the 1360s, saw the collapse of the Ilkhanate and the Yuan Dynasty, the two khanates that had been most deeply involved in the cultures of their subject populations. The third phase, from the 1360s to the seventeenth century, saw the gradual absorption of the remaining khanates by new regional powers.
The Problem of Succession
The most fundamental cause of the Mongol decline was the absence of a clear law of succession. The Mongol political tradition recognized the right of the imperial family to elect the great khan, but it had no clear principle for choosing among the candidates. Every election was a contest, and the contests often resulted in civil war. The Toluid Civil War of 1260-1264 was the most serious of these contests, but it was only the first of many succession disputes that would plague the Mongol world for the next two centuries.
The problem of succession was particularly acute in the Yuan Dynasty, where the later Yuan emperors were often weak, corrupt, or incompetent. The succession disputes in the Yuan Dynasty led to a long period of political instability that eventually contributed to the fall of the dynasty in 1368. The succession disputes in the other khanates were less severe, but they were still a significant source of political instability.
The Cultural Assimilation of the Khanates
The second major cause of the Mongol decline was the cultural assimilation of the khanates into their subject populations. The Mongols were originally a relatively small ruling class ruling over a vast population of culturally distinct peoples. Over time, the Mongol ruling class gradually adopted the cultures of their subjects, and the distinctively Mongol character of the khanates was gradually lost.
The cultural assimilation was most pronounced in the Yuan Dynasty, where the Mongol ruling class gradually adopted Chinese language, Chinese clothing, and Chinese customs. The Yuan court, which had originally been a Mongolian court in a Chinese setting, gradually became a Chinese court with Mongol features. The cultural assimilation was a major source of political tension, as the conservative Mongol princes objected to the Sinicization of the dynasty, and the tension eventually contributed to the fall of the dynasty.
The cultural assimilation was also significant in the Ilkhanate, where the Mongol ruling class gradually converted to Islam and adopted Persian culture. The conversion of the Ilkhanate to Islam was a major turning point in the history of the khanate, and it marked the end of the distinctively Mongol character of the ruling class. The cultural assimilation in the Golden Horde and the Chagatai Khanate was less pronounced, but it was still a significant factor in the decline of the khanates.
The Rise of New Regional Powers
The third major cause of the Mongol decline was the rise of new regional powers that were able to challenge the khanates for control of the Eurasian world. The most important of these new regional powers were the Ming Dynasty in China, the Grand Duchy of Moscow in Russia, the Timurid Empire in Central Asia, and the Mamluk Sultanate in Egypt.
The Ming Dynasty, founded by Zhu Yuanzhang in 1368, was the most serious challenge to the Mongol rule in China. The Ming court gradually extended its control over the Chinese heartland, and the Mongol ruling class was forced to withdraw to the northern steppe. The Ming court was also a major military power, and the Ming armies repeatedly invaded the Mongol territories in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries.
The Grand Duchy of Moscow, which had been a tributary of the Golden Horde, gradually emerged as the major power in the Russian steppe. The Grand Duchy was able to exploit the internal divisions of the Golden Horde to gradually assert its independence, and by the late fifteenth century it was the dominant power in the northern steppe. The Grand Duchy went on to become the basis of the Russian Empire, which would eventually conquer all of the former Mongol territories in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
The Timurid Empire, founded by Timur in the late fourteenth century, was a major challenge to the Chagatai Khanate and to the other Mongol khanates. The Timurid Empire was a major military power, and Timur’s armies repeatedly invaded India, Persia, and Anatolia. The Timurid Empire also patronized Islamic culture, and the Timurid court at Samarkand and Herat was one of the major cultural centers of the medieval world.
The Mamluk Sultanate in Egypt was a major challenge to the Ilkhanate and to the other khanates in the Middle East. The Mamluk Sultanate was able to halt the Mongol advance into Egypt at the Battle of Ain Jalut in 1260, and the Mamluks went on to conquer the last Ilkhanate possessions in the Levant. The Mamluks were also a major patron of Islamic culture, and the Mamluk court in Cairo was one of the major cultural centers of the medieval world.
The Transformation of the Steppe
The fourth major cause of the Mongol decline was the gradual transformation of the steppe environment that had originally produced the Mongol conquests. The Mongolian steppe was the demographic and military base of the Mongol Empire, and the gradual desiccation of the steppe that occurred over the course of the medieval period may have reduced the carrying capacity of the land and weakened the central khanate. The desiccation may also have contributed to the migration of the Mongol population out of the heartland and into the surrounding agricultural regions.
The transformation of the steppe was a slow process, and its effects were not immediately apparent. By the late thirteenth century, however, the central khanate was no longer able to support the kind of large-scale cavalry operations that had produced the original conquests, and the political center of the empire had shifted to the agricultural regions of China, Persia, and Russia. The shift was a major source of political tension, as the conservative Mongol princes objected to the abandonment of the steppe traditions, and the tension eventually contributed to the fragmentation of the empire.
The Combined Effect
The fall of the Mongol Empire was the combined effect of all of these factors, acting together over a long period. The problem of succession, the cultural assimilation of the khanates, the rise of new regional powers, and the transformation of the steppe all contributed to the decline of the empire, and no single factor can be identified as the decisive cause. The fall of the empire was, in a sense, the natural result of the success of the original empire: a state that had grown too large, too diverse, and too complex to be governed by a single political framework.
Sources
- David Morgan, The Mongols (2nd ed., Oxford, 2007).
- Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the West, 1221–1410 (London, 2005).
- Timothy May, The Mongol Conquests in World History (London, 2012).