The Mongol Empire declined for a number of reasons. The most important of the causes was the absence of a clear law of succession, the cultural assimilation of the khanates into their subject populations, the rise of new regional powers, and the gradual transformation of the steppe environment that had originally produced the Mongol conquests.
The decline of the empire was a long, drawn-out process that took almost two centuries to complete, from the first signs of fragmentation in the mid-thirteenth century to the final disappearance of the last successor khanate in the seventeenth century. The decline of the empire was the combined effect of all of these factors, acting together over a long period.
The Problem of Succession
The problem of succession was the most fundamental cause of the Mongol decline. The Mongol political tradition recognized the right of the imperial family to elect the great khan, but it had no clear principle for choosing among the candidates. Every election was a contest, and the contests often resulted in civil war.
The Toluid Civil War of 1260-1264 was the most serious of these contests, and it marked the end of the unified Mongol state. The civil war was followed by a long series of succession disputes in the various khanates, and the succession disputes were a major source of political instability throughout the Mongol world.
The problem of succession was particularly acute in the Yuan Dynasty, where the later Yuan emperors were often weak, corrupt, or incompetent. The succession disputes in the Yuan Dynasty led to a long period of political instability that eventually contributed to the fall of the dynasty in 1368.
The Cultural Assimilation of the Khanates
The cultural assimilation of the khanates into their subject populations was the second major cause of the Mongol decline. The Mongols were originally a relatively small ruling class ruling over a vast population of culturally distinct peoples, and the cultural assimilation of the khanates was a major factor in the decline.
The cultural assimilation was most pronounced in the Yuan Dynasty, where the Mongol ruling class gradually adopted Chinese language, Chinese clothing, and Chinese customs. The cultural assimilation was also significant in the Ilkhanate, where the Mongol ruling class gradually converted to Islam and adopted Persian culture. The cultural assimilation in the Golden Horde and the Chagatai Khanate was less pronounced, but it was still a significant factor in the decline of the khanates.
The Rise of New Regional Powers
The rise of new regional powers was the third major cause of the Mongol decline. The most important of the new regional powers were the Ming Dynasty in China, the Grand Duchy of Moscow in Russia, the Timurid Empire in Central Asia, and the Mamluk Sultanate in Egypt.
The Ming Dynasty, founded by Zhu Yuanzhang in 1368, was the most serious challenge to the Mongol rule in China. The Ming court gradually extended its control over the Chinese heartland, and the Mongol ruling class was forced to withdraw to the northern steppe. The Ming court was also a major military power, and the Ming armies repeatedly invaded the Mongol territories in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries.
The Grand Duchy of Moscow, which had been a tributary of the Golden Horde, gradually emerged as the major power in the Russian steppe. The Grand Duchy was able to exploit the internal divisions of the Golden Horde to gradually assert its independence, and by the late fifteenth century it was the dominant power in the northern steppe. The Grand Duchy went on to become the basis of the Russian Empire, which would eventually conquer all of the former Mongol territories in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
The Timurid Empire, founded by Timur in the late fourteenth century, was a major challenge to the Chagatai Khanate and to the other Mongol khanates. The Timurid Empire was a major military power, and Timur’s armies repeatedly invaded India, Persia, and Anatolia. The Timurid Empire also patronized Islamic culture, and the Timurid court at Samarkand and Herat was one of the major cultural centers of the medieval world.
The Mamluk Sultanate in Egypt was a major challenge to the Ilkhanate and to the other khanates in the Middle East. The Mamluk Sultanate was able to halt the Mongol advance into Egypt at the Battle of Ain Jalut in 1260, and the Mamluks went on to conquer the last Ilkhanate possessions in the Levant.
The Transformation of the Steppe
The transformation of the steppe environment was the fourth major cause of the Mongol decline. The Mongolian steppe was the demographic and military base of the Mongol Empire, and the gradual desiccation of the steppe that occurred over the course of the medieval period may have reduced the carrying capacity of the land and weakened the central khanate.
The transformation of the steppe was a slow process, and its effects were not immediately apparent. By the late thirteenth century, however, the central khanate was no longer able to support the kind of large-scale cavalry operations that had produced the original conquests, and the political center of the empire had shifted to the agricultural regions of China, Persia, and Russia.
The Combined Effect
The decline of the Mongol Empire was the combined effect of all of these factors, acting together over a long period. The problem of succession, the cultural assimilation of the khanates, the rise of new regional powers, and the transformation of the steppe all contributed to the decline of the empire, and no single factor can be identified as the decisive cause.
The decline of the Mongol Empire was, in a sense, the natural result of the success of the original empire: a state that had grown too large, too diverse, and too complex to be governed by a single political framework. The decline was a major turning point in the history of Eurasia, and it marked the beginning of a new era in the political and cultural life of the continent.
Sources
- David Morgan, The Mongols (2nd ed., Oxford, 2007).
- Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the West, 1221–1410 (London, 2005).
- Timothy May, The Mongol Conquests in World History (London, 2012).